Pundit: MacBooks could take 50% notebook share in a year/ Me: Prolly not

I like to think that everyone will buy Macs. I buy Macs regularly and just bought one for my sister- and brother-in-law so they can join me in my OS X joy. But folks who say Apple can hit 50% market share in notebooks next year are deluding themselves.

Jeremy Toeman believes in this delusion and his points are these:

1. Virtually all MacBook owners will recommend most MacBook models when asked
2. Virtually no Vista notebook owners will recommend most models from any given manufacturer when asked

OK. Number one I can get behind. Mac buyers make Mac buyers. But this is like snake vodka buyers “making” snake vodka buyers out of their friends — sure It might taste great, but that shizz has a snake in it!

Number two is a pipe dream. Vista is a good OS. It’s solid and will eventually take over until 2045 when Windows 7 comes out. People use Windows and they’ll use Windows laptops.

Then he goes on to posit that notebooks are “personal” devices. Not the laptops I know. The laptops I know are fleet-released boring-books built by committee and sold in bulk to corporations for a pittance. Unless you count the notebook market as “people passionate about mobile computing,” you’re always bumping into the old saw that “No one ever got fired for buying Microsoft.”

We all know OS X rocks my body and my MacBook Pro is super. But 50% is a big number and Apple is fighting Sony, HP, and Dell in this market. If they do get a 50% market share, I’ll eat my hat, provided I can wear a hat made of meatloaf.